An ordinary president. Till when?

François Hollande arriving at Bruxelles-Midi (Brussel-South) Station, the 23rd of May

The 23^rd of May, Thalys passengers to Brussels noticed a special guest boarded with them. It was François Hollande who went to the traditional European Council. Very smiling and as usual, the French President talked with the press and some people even took a picture with him.

A lot of people, present at Gare du Nord, were quite satisfied even happy considering it is normal an incumbent president takes train as everybody, without putting on airs. Nonetheless, some people disapproved this attitude as the president’s bodyguards and security officers who expressed their feeling and their critics in to La Libre Belgique’s correspondent in Paris. For them, the new French president is not really aware his position implying a extraordinary safety measures, non-compatible with a normal life.

François Hollande said during the presidential race, he wished to be as “Mister Normal”, an ordinary man, doing ordinary things as everyone. Of course, he wants to make the difference vis-à-vis Nicolas Sarkozy and his hyper-presidency. This is a subtle way to communicate on his image he wants to give, a president-citizen close to people and appreciating people, at the far opposite of Nicolas Sarkozy.

Can François Hollande still keep this ordinary president posture when his position is far to be ordinary, as he recently conceded during the campaign? Whatever he wants or not, the French president knows he is more exposed than others and he is submitted to a special protection. This protection is needed and may create a distance between the chief and the French people. François Hollande is clearly aware of this and that explains why he wants to appear as an ordinary president that means a man keeping in touch with his people and not disconnected of the reality. In other words, a citizen as another, as a mayor can be a rural town.

A trade-off should be found to conciliate these two exigencies: acting as an ordinary president and guarantying the safety of the function. The bodyguards and other security officers are maybe going to adapt themselves to the François Hollande’s personality, a man needing to keep in touch with people, as Jacques Chirac in the past. Nonetheless, rather than deal with an ordinary president, maybe François Hollande should appear as a “classic” president which does not mean he will be far of the reality and the preoccupations of French people.

Nicolas Sarkozy was defeated because he behaved as a capricious and exaggerating man, which irritated French people who voted for a man with no pretentiousness and excess, corresponding to an ordinary presidency. Nonetheless, François Hollande will have to do some concessions and give up some possibilities as moving in Paris with his scooter or taking the Thalys to go in Brussels, for safety reasons and if the context demands, as the function.

Your future is my future

On the last May 11^th, Party of European Socialists (PES) launched a campaign regarding youth employment issue in the EU.

The situation is alarming: more 5.5 million of young people are jobless, and more 1 million get a precarious job. Moreover, the rates are very preoccupying: 23% in France, 31% in Italy, 36% in Slovakia and even up 50% in Spain. Such a situation reinforces euro-scepticism within the EU member-States.

To give concrete answers to this burning issue, some initiatives and proposals were recently put forward as in Austria or in France during the recent presidential race, François Hollande proposing his “contrat de generation”, a kind of new deal aiming at facilitating youth employment. At the EU scale, the objective is to give answers to austerity policies led by the conservative governments which found their limits and are not efficient to tackle to the problem.

The European socialists put forward a “European Youth guarantee for jobs” based on a real European strategy for employment and also an adaptation of national policies allowing after four months, an access to job, a professionalizing internship or a formation are guaranteed as in Austria where the youth unemployment rate deeply decreased, passing down the 10%-rate.

Youth employment is a crucial issue for the future of the European Union. Join the movement in order to bring 2 million young people out of unemployment by 2014, by making a European Youth Guarantee a reality. For this, click on the following link. And if you come or are in Brussels in June, come and attend the Socialist and Democrat group conference in the European Parliament, an ideal occasion to express your ideas and make some proposals. (Deadline for subscribe: May 31^st)

An equilibrium government

Jean-Marc Ayrault, the new French PM, unveiled his so expected government list, the last Wednesday evening.

The government gathers experienced and novice people, left and right wing of the French Socialist Party, men and women, old and new generation, leaving some more or less good surprises.

Thus, there are no “Elephants”[1] present in the government in spite of their acknowledged experience and savoir-faire, excepted Laurent Fabius appointed as new minister of Foreign affairs. This choice may be hazardous in the context of the economic crisis but their presence might have been problematic insofar as there would have been a step backward, which would have been in contradiction with the idea of change put forward by François Hollande during the presidential race. What is more such a presence would have created a kind of competition between all the Elephants but also between them and the Prime minister (who has no governmental experience), which could have been a major problem for the governmental cohesion.

So, some important and major French socialist personalities as Elisabeth Guigou (former European affairs minister) Bertrand Delanoë (current mayor of Paris) and Martine Aubry (PS leader and Jacques Delors’ daughter) will be put aside and preferred to the Socialist party rising generation and the young personalities as Vincent Peillon, Manuel Valls, Arnaud Montebourg or Benoît Hamon, PS spokesperson, embodying the left wing of the party.

 The new president and his PM manage to renew the leaders, putting the Mitterrand Generation aside and respecting the balance of power between the different components of the French Socialist Party. This balance is also found in the framework of the alliances with the other left political parties – the Greens and Le Parti radical de Gauche (the Left Radicals) – who get important ministries. The task seemed complicated insofar nobody was to be unsatisfied even if the MRC (Mouvement radical et citoyen, the Jean-Pierre Chevènement party) got no position within the Ayrault government in spite of the explicit calls. Maybe it is needed to wait for the legislative elections results of June to hope something.

Because, it is highly probable the Ayrault government is experiencing an important reshuffle after the renewing of the French National Assembly. It is going to depend on the majority got by the French Socialist, that is to say absolute or relative, but also on the attitude of the traditional allies. The Front de Gauche (Left Front) behaviour will be very important insofar as if the Left Party (one of the composing movements), ruled by Jean-Luc Mélenchon seems to be reluctant to join the government, it is not really the case of the French Communist Party. Once again, a balance is needed the Ayrault government to rule without major constrains.

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[1] Nickname given to the main and historic leaders of the Socialist Party and having started their political ascension with François Mittterand in the 70s and 80s.

The transfer of powers

François Hollande was officially invested as the 7^th president of the 5^th French Republic the last Tuesday, just after the transfer of powers with Nicolas Sarkozy.

France’s newly-elected President Francois Hollande arrives at the Elysee Palace for the handover ceremony in Paris, the 15th of May

François Hollande wanted a sober and simple transfer to make a break-up with his predecessor. For instance, if Nicolas Sarkozy invited his wife and his children to the inauguration – showing the picture of a modern and reconstituted family – François Hollande did things on the opposite. His four children preferred to decline the invitation, putting some distance, as Ségolène Royal, his ex-companion, anticipating the comparison with the Sarkozys.

The break-up was also in the relationship with the former and the new president, according to the images. If Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande had a cordial conservation, there was still a palpable tension between the two men who harshly fought during the presidential campaign. The talks were quite formal and cold, François Hollande having not going downstairs with Sarkozy when he left the Elysée, leaving him and his wife who joined their car, as he wanted to turn over a new leaf quickly.

France’s outgoing President Sarkozy stands next to newly-elected President Hollande on the steps of the Elysee Palace at the end of a handover ceremony.

Behaving like this, François Hollande deals “sarkozysm” and all it represented the last five years the dealth blow. Five years ago, Nicolas Sarkozy seemed to appreciate the achievement of a political ambition. In 2012, François Hollande wanted to appear as a solemn president, put forward his idea of “president normal” (ordinary man). This explains this “Pompidou” style which corresponds quite well with the personality of the new president in the context of the crisis.

In fact, and in comparison to the hyperactive Sarkozy, François Hollande wants to be peaceful, over the others. He just wants to rule and give a direction to France.

The break-up is obviously here: in the style and the content. Undoubtedly, the challenges expecting the country will be very important and the French president is aware of this. Nonetheless, his temperament and his presidential style are a kind of insurance aiming at protecting him. This strategy seems to be effective, most of French people appreciating the attitude of the new president, putting the Sarkozy leaving at middle-distance.

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Which Prime for Hollande?

Martine Aubry, Jean-Marc Ayrault, Manuel Valls and Pierre Moscovici, possible Prime minister of François Hollande

Tomorrow, François Hollande will appoint his first Prime minister just after the transfer of powers between him and his predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy.

Some people are regularly put forward with insistence: Jean-Marc Ayrault, current MP-mayor of Nantes, Martine Aubry, current PS First Secretary and Manuel Valls, current MP-mayor of Evry (suburb of Paris) and indispensable François Hollande’s director of communication during the campaign. Other people are also quoted as Pierre Moscovici, head of campaign and Michel Sapin, former minister of Economy and close friend of the new President but they are regarded as outsiders.

Most people are speculating on the name of the future Prime minister even if all the journalist and political analysts seem to agree on a name: Jean-Marc Ayrault. Leader of the socialist group in the French Parliament since 1997, Ayrault is a discreet man and knows the French Assembly very well, which is an essential asset when you want to be head of Government. What is more, Ayrault appreciates Germany and German culture, which may be very useful vis-à-vis Angela Merkel, the German chancellor.

Martine Aubry seems to be a credible alternative. PS leader, she is very popular within the activists and is often placed at the left wing of the party. She has good relations with the main other parties of the French left as Europe Ecologie Les Verts (The French Greens) and the Front de Gauche (Left Front) of Jean-Luc Mélenchon who will be very demanding with the Hollande presidency, even if it means to be an agitator.

Regarding Manuel Valls, this is an ambitious and effective politician and it may be a plausible choice in a context of crisis and increasing of the extremist parties. Nonetheless, it is more than probable an appointment of the current Member of Parliament is going to happen in a second time, depending on the evolution of the Hollande term. In other words, Valls rather appears as a joker, a possible recourse even if it is quite obvious he is going to play key-role in the future government.

Jean-Marc Ayrault is probably succeeding to François Fillon, the next 15^th of May and becoming the first Prime minister of François Hollande. Nonetheless, such an honour might be questioned because of a criminal sentence, fifteen years ago. Ayrault never denied the facts considering he wasn’t questioned as a person or as a mayor but because he did not respect some fundamental principles regarding the public markets access. In other words, this case should not be taken into account but is it not be in contradiction with the idea of “exemplar Republic”, harshly defended by François Hollande during the campaign?

If Hollande makes a rational choice, he is going to choose Martine Aubry who won’t be able to refuse Matignon (the Prime Minister’s headquarters). If he makes a sentimental choice, Jean-Marc Ayrault will be Prime minister, which is the most probable case. Moreover, Hollande knows he will be able to count on a faithful man. The choice of tomorrow is very expecting and he is not impossible there will be a surprise on the front steps of the Elysée when the General Secretary announces the name of the elect.

Austerity or chaos

Last Sunday, Greeks came to poll stations to renew the Vouli (the Parliament) in the framework of legislative elections, direct consequence of the Andreas Papandreou socialist government fall, on last October.

The election was held in the context of the crisis in which New Democracy (ND) and PASOK (the Greek socialist party) were severely sanctioned, getting 1/3 of the votes both only.

Conservatives and socialists were disowned by electors because of a more and more unpopular and unbearable[1] austerity policy for a lot of Greeks noticing an aggravation of their daily life. This hopelessness became wrath and radical movements largely enjoyed this situation. This is a heterogeneous group gathering the SYRIA (radical left), ND dissidents, Greek nationalists and Golden Dawn, a neo-Nazi party who got twenty-one MPs and which his leader is clearly in admiration of Nazi Germany. Their unique common point is to reject any austerity plan in the conditions implemented by the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund.

Nikolaos Michaloliakos, Golden Dawn (neo-Nazi party) leader

Greece is very near political chaos after the elections. No party succeeded to form a coalition so far, in particularly New Democracy and his leader, Antonio Samaras, who bet on these elections to satisfy his ambitions and re-launch his political career, in spite of the EU recommendations.

Athens clearly pays with fire even if the Greeks vote of last Sunday must be taken into account as a serious warning. Indeed, the austerity policy currently implemented and imposed by the EU (with the benediction of Germany) clearly found his limits and breaks citizens who can’t support anymore and vote for the extremes finally. Thus, it is needed to re-think the currently led strategy if we want Greek really gets out of the situation, definitely. Nonetheless, this political chaos is not the solution insofar as the country is sinking more and more in the crisis. New elections seem to be inevitable although it can be feared it will not resolve the situation really, except satisfying some personal ambitions.

So, the spectrum of a Greece’s bankruptcy and a withdrawal of the Eurozone is coming back although everybody is aware of the danger. Neither the European Union nor especially Athens has interest such a scenario becomes true. In fact, the key of the problem is neither in Greece, nor in the European Commission but rather in Berlin where the German chancellor seems to be reluctant to question her strategy. The election of François Hollande to the French presidency is, in spite of all, a good opportunity to make a new deal, the future French socialist Head of State considering austerity cannot be a fate and objectives of growth to re-launch the European integration should be reached. The challenge may be harsh but not impossible.

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[1] For the French speaking people, I invite you to read an article writen by Elodie Lamer for Le Soir, a Belgian daily. Very deeping and instructive.

Sarkozy quits politics. Really?

Which future for Nicolas Sarkozy? The question can be asked with legitimacy since the defeat of the outgoing head of State, last Sunday.

Nicolas Sarkozy delivrering his speech after his defeat for re-election, the 6th of May.

The UMP (Union pour un mouvement populaire – Union for a popular movement) candidate announced and repeated it: he’ll quit politics if he was disowned by Frenchs. Nicolas Sarkozy confirmed his decision as he confirmed he is not leading the ruling majority for the next June legislative elections, letting the current UMP leaders to do it. What is more, Sarkozy wishes to take some distances.

Nicolas Sarkozy should not suffer of his change of statute immediately: he will continue to benefit some services of the French state, get a special allocation and be able to fly on Air France freely. The outgoing Head of State should survive and support the shock.

Nonetheless, if Nicolas Sarkozy seems to leave politics, some leaders within the UMP still hope he does not turn his back to a thirty-five-year-passion, some considering a possible come-back in 2017, when the party is deeply divided and torn between the ambitions of Jean-François Copé, François Fillon and Xavier Bertrand, all three thinking about the 2017 French presidential election.

Jean-François Copé, Xavier Bertrand and François Fillon

I’m quite sceptical on a possible come-back of Nicolas Sarkozy in the future. To make it possible, the UMP should be deeply divided, as it is highly probable. What is more, it is needed some leaders as Copé and Fillon are out of service and agree to put their personal ambitions aside on the belhalf of their party’s interests. It is unlikely insofar as they consider their time has come and Sarkozy as having no legitimacy. At last, the perspective of organizing primaries to choose the one who is going to challenge François Hollande is a sign of the willingness to think about something else.

Besides, few are the defeated heads of State who succeed a political come-back. In most of the cases, this come-back may be a failure as for Lech Walesa, for instance. Former trade-unionist, president of the Polish Republic in 1990, he was defeated by Alexander Kwasniewski, five years after. In 2000, he ran for the Polish presidency but got 1% of the polls only, because of a radically different political context.

So, it is more realistic Nicolas Sarkozy quits politics definitely. Nonetheless, his withdrawal is quite different in comparison with Lionel Jospin in 2002 who left the French socialist party leadership and the Prime minster-ship suddenly, after being defeated in the presidential race in the first round