Will Barack Obama be the next US president on November 2012? Asking this question may have been a non-sense just one year ago and one year before the election. The question deserved and must be asked nonetheless.

During the previous White House race, the democratic candidate delivered a very voluntary and strong speech to find a solution to the crisis. “Yes, we can!” he explained. The US could have a new start, draw a new future and choose another destiny. Yes, it was possible to turn over a new leaf and change the America’s face.

A large majority of the US people strongly believed to change, which explained the important victory of Obama. But almost four years after, most American people seem to be disappointed, not to say very disappointed by Obama’s policies. The 2010-mid-term elections clearly showed it and there is no guarantee for the democratic president to get a second-mandate.

Thus, can Barack Obama be a “one-mandate-president” as Jimmy Carter or George H. Bush previously? According to the polls, less 1 out of 2 of the American people is currently satisfied by Obama. In the same time, the Grand Old Party seems to be quite optimistic, strongly considering that Barack Obama will be a one-mandate president. In other words, and as I wrote before, there is no guarantee for the democratic candidate although he has some relevant assets.

In fact, everything will depend on his future campaign but also on his ability to “reinvent” a new American dream, a more realistic one taking into account the international environment and more focused on the homeland issues. Barack Obama clearly knows it and is clearly aware that shouting “yes, we (still) can” won’t be enough.

Moreover, the current democratic candidate can count on the Republican primaries in which the main challengers are experiencing major difficulties and major problems, as Herman Cain for example, currently accused of sexual harassment which may be really problematic for him. Besides, none of the republican competitors seem to impose so far, according to the polls. It’s too early to have an opinion or to bet on the name of the next republican challenger but the current and existing cacophony inside the Republican Party may be a good thing for the current US President. And it is not certain American citizens will be attracted by extremist and radical speeches held by the Tea Parties, even if they are quite popular thanks to their very simplistic declarations (based on the moral and religious values mainly)

The 2012 US campaign will be mainly focused on homeland issues in the context of the current economic crisis. If Barack Obama can defend his outcome with some concrete actions (especially on the international stage), he must be aware of the fact the key of his re-election will be issues as unemployment or welfare. As I wrote before, Barack Obama has to be audacious and propose new challenges for the United States, if he wishes to be re-elected for a new-four-year-mandate, the next year. It is a gamble who may lose as he may easily win.