Italy in uncertainty


On this Sunday and this Monday, Italians are going to polling stations to elect the Chamber of representatives and the Senate in the context of the economic, financial and even political crisis.

After a wimp and dull campaign, there is still an uncertainty regarding the final result insomuch the hypothesis of an ungovernable Italy without ruling majority is less and less hypothetic and more and more credible. Admittedly, the  Centre-Left Partito Democratico is still ahead in the opinion polls and his leader, Pierluigi Bersani is sure to be the next President of the Council. Nonetheless, if he is ensured to get a ruling majority at the Lower Chamber, he is not certain to get the majority at the Senate where everything is going to depend on the Lombardy elections, the most important (politically speaking) and richest region of the country.

Beppe Grillo, Moviemento Cinque Stelle leader

Beppe Grillo, Moviemento Cinque Stelle leader

What is more, the probable head of government has to take into account the Silvio Berlusconi’s (and his ally, the Lega Nord populist and extremist party) and Beppe Grillo’s catching up in the surveys. Leader of Movimento Cinque Stelle (“Five stars Movement”), the humorist and involved blogger is the revelation of the Italian campaign. With about 18% of the vote intentions, the 65-year-old man might create the surprise and make his political movement, the third nay the second political force of Italy within the Chamber of representatives. Such a political influence would be very strong for this humorist claiming being outside the traditional parties he rejects and criticizes with vehemence. Thus, Beppe Grillo might embody a possible and strong Left opposition to Pierluigi Bersani in the coming weeks and months.

Faced with the coming Grillo’s success and vis-à-vis the centre and Mario Monti, the PD’s leader tries to give some guarantees and insist on the humorist populist drifting both. With barely 15% of vote intentions, the outgoing President of Council has few chances to stay at power but might be a precious ally to form and back the future government. For information, the former European Commissioner might run for the presidency of the Senate or become minister of Economy and Finances, in exchange of his alliance with Pierluigi Bersani to allow him to govern and continue (at least partially) the economic and social policy he initiated to get the peninsula out the crisis.

Experiencing a non-finishing economic crisis and undermined by uncertainty, Italy is looking for a new breath and a new direction. Although it is still the favourite, the PD clearly is aware it won’t have any other solutions than pursuing the Mario Monti’s strategy which just begins to get some concrete results according to some experts, despites the recession characterised by a worrying and fast increase of unemployment. Indeed, the Sunday and Monday results will be very followed and commented on Italy, of course, but also in the rest of the European Union, because of the Eurozone stability, and the status of Italy as third economy of the area.

Pierluigi Bersani, current PD's leader and rulling for the Italy's presidency of Council

Pierluigi Bersani, current PD’s leader and rulling for the Italy’s presidency of Council

Much people hope a victory of Pierluigi Bersani, less by affection and adhesion to his ideas but rather for the sake of seeing Italy to continue its way out crisis strategy. In fact, a thin Slivio Berlusconi victory or even a Beppe Grillo excellent result would be synonym of uncertainty, which most national and European executives and leaders want to avoid at any price. In spite of that, and whoever the winner, Italy is still looking for itself and knows it will have to make more efforts in the future.