Angela Merkel has been clearly explicit: if Greece decided to renounce to its commitments, she might let it leave the Eurozone. Of course, most of politicians quickly reacted to the German chancellor’s new statement, to remind Greece is an independent state and Greek people are free to vote for the party they want to access to power.
Indeed, since the Vouli (the Greek Parliament) failed to elect a new head of State, speculations are taking place again about the capacity of the country to respect its commitments, especially if the SYRIZA party wins the 25th of January early elections. Currently, the far-left movement led by Alexis Tzipras is leading in the polls, just before the current ND-PASOK ruling coalition led by Antonis Samaras. Most of analysts and experts fear a probable SYRIZA victory destabilizes the country and, by extension, the entire Eurozone, which is recovering and becoming credible in the stock exchanges.
Before panic, it should be important to remind this: Greece is an independent and sovereign country and Greek people are free to vote without experiencing pressure and blackmails from outside, and Germany in particular. Angela Merkel, by her statement, gave the impression she is the real boss of the European Union and can threaten any country which does not respect her wills and recommendations. Such behaviour might encourage Greek citizens to vote in favour of SYRIZA massively, instead of being more realistic and support the current ruling coalition.
Because it is needed to remind that New Democracy (centre-right) and PASOK (Greek socialist party) has ruled the country and shared the power since 1974 and the end of the Military junta’s era. For years, real political dynasties have come to power and they failed to modernize the country and its State. In 2009, the PASOK, in spite of his strategy to tackle the crisis, which hit the country, failed and it was deeply sanctioned, three years after. SYRIZA attracts more and more Greek voters who are clearly fed up by repetitive austerity policies, even if Greece’s efforts begin to be fruitful.
Although, we can be concerned by a probable victory of SYRIZA, it will be certain the far-left party will not impose his conditions, to my mind. Indeed, the party will not get the absolute majority to rule the country and it will have to find partners to form a government and find a political agreement. Moreover, even if Alexis Tzipras wants to renegotiate with the troika (EU Commission, IMF and ECB) about the conditions of bailout, he will have to do some important concessions. Indeed, Greece needs to stay inside the Eurozone, it is valuable, even crucial for its future and its recovery. SYRIZA’S leader is now clearly aware of this and will not take the risk to demand a Grexit, in other words, getting out the Eurozone. Because, you leave the Eurozone, you leave the European Union, the Euro being part of the Maastricht Treaty, one of the fundamental principles of the acquis communautaire.
A probable win of SYRIZA, the 25th of January, might not cause serious consequences for the Eurozone, compulsory, as some people fear (or hope) currently. In fact, the real pressure is extended on the far-left leader who will have to find a coalition and after find an agreement with the rest of the EU leaders, Angela Merkel first. In other words, it is easier to make some promises during the elections than to keep after!