International

Cameron: real gambler but real winner?

David Cameron, UK Prime minister and Tories leader, re-elected for a second term

David Cameron, UK Prime minister and Tories leader, re-elected for a second term

It is a total surprise nobody predicted. David Cameron, outgoing PM and Tories’ leader, largely won the UK 2015 elections with an absolute majority in the House of Commons. Labor Party only got 239 seats and Liberal-democrats almost disappeared with 8 seats. Some hours after the results, Ed Miliband, the Labor leader, Nick Clegg, outgoing deputy Prime minister and Lib-dem leader resigned from their respective leadership. Even Nigel Farage stepped down as UKIP leader although the populist and anti-EU party got 12% of the ballots but two seats only.

As I’ve just written, David Cameron’s victory is unexpected. Polls institutes rather predicted a hung parliament and very tight outcome to form a cabinet. Furthermore, the current UK PM was criticized and some people thought he would lose the elections.

Ed Miliband, Labour leader

Ed Miliband, Labour leader

Cameron is a real gambler who won not due to his economic results but rather due to the weakness of his direct challengers. Ed Miliband was never considered as the charismatic leader the country needed to be ruled and Nick Clegg lost all credibility due to his alliance with the Tories during the past five years. Indeed, the Tories-Libdem coalition more enjoyed to Cameron than his deputy PM. Moreover, it was quite harsh to Clegg to tackle the outgoing cabinet’s results while his party was part of the coalition government. In other words, Clegg was in a total contradiction and totally tricked by Cameron.

The re-elect Prime minister is about to rule a majority government and will have all the possibility to hold his referendum about the future of United Kingdom in the European Union. He made this commitment three years ago to counter the UKIP’s progression into the polls but knows he has to keep his promise. Nonetheless, the Scottish National Party’s landslide victory which may change everything and there is no guarantee a referendum will be organized by 2017.

Nicola Sturgeon, SNP leader

Nicola Sturgeon, SNP leader

Indeed, with 56 out 59 available seats, the Scottish nationalist ousted the Labour domination. This quasi-complete victory sounds like a complete revenge for them, just some months after losing the referendum about the independence of Scotland. In Westminster, Scottish nationalists and their new leader, Nicola Sturgeon, are going to defend the Scotland’s and Scottish interests and might extend a pressure on Cameron’s cabinet especially if it tackles some social policies (Scotland is a very liberal region) and finally decides to organize the referendum about the future of UK in the EU (Scottish are much more pro-European than the rest of Britain)

David Cameron totally won and defeated all his challengers. Nonetheless, this victory is deceiving. United Kingdom is clearly more divided than ever with a conservative England and a progressive and lured by independence Scotland. Uncertain times are open in Britain and Cameron knows, whatever the decisions he makes and the strategies he leads, it will have a huge impact on the future of his country.

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